Runnin on Empty January

Here’s a ResOILution for You…

Did you make a New Year’s Resolution? I rarely do. I’ve often watched other people break theirs by February, so the whole practice seems a bit pointless and disheartening. Nevertheless, this year I thought I’d give it a try. Okay, here goes: “I resolve to free myself from oil dependence this year.” Right. Who am I kidding? That will take more than a year. Okay, how about this: “I resolve to lessen my dependence on oil this year.” Wimp City! That’s like resolving “I will lose weight” as opposed to “I will lose 10 pounds.” But, how do I lose 10 pounds of oil dependence? How does one quantify steps toward anything so complex?

I think I should begin by trying to notice everything in my life that depends on oil. My car is a hybrid and gets over 50 mpg so that’s a start in the right direction, but passenger cars are just one small part of the picture. The picture is far bigger and far more complex than is apparent at first.

Chatting with an old friend over the holidays, I didn’t expect her to be aware of Peak Oil, but (as usual) she was way ahead of me and expressed concern over the coming economic effects. To prepare, she’s sold her big, beautiful house and moved to a less expensive, less remote area where she has no mortgage, no debt, and can walk to services. She plans to sell her stock, and we brainstormed safer places to invest. Yet, despite her awareness, she clings to the “cornucopian myth”.¹

“We have oil reserves, Caren,” she emphatically confided.

“You mean you do, personally? Do you own stock?”

“No. We do – the government does.”

“Oh, true, but it’s not much.”

“Yes, it is. We have a lot.”

She’s right. Sort of. The U.S. keeps what is known as the “Strategic Petroleum Reserve.” Created after the 1973-74 oil embargo to protect us in case foreign oil imports were cut off, the reserves contain (as of mid-December) just under 700 million barrels². (USDOE). We produce almost 9 million (barrels per day), import 11 million bbl, and consume 20 million bbl³. “Doing the math” shows that if imports stop, we would consume our entire reserve in less than 2 months at current usage levels⁴. After that, if we were to depend on our own production, we would have to cut our consumption by 60%.

In spite of all the homework I’ve done over the past two years, I cannot begin to fathom what that would look like.

Still, even a very big, very complex picture can be puzzled together in small pieces. In December, I gave you “Rule #1: Buy local.” Instead of books from amazon.com or lovely unnecessaries from crateandbarrel.com, I made gifts, shopped at local stores, chose local or California wines over imports. What did all this accomplish? It helped me notice my dependence on oil. As I passed up items from far away, I couldn’t help thinking how much more they will cost as oil prices continue to climb.

Rule #2: Notice the oil in your life. Notice the tools you use in your work, the purchases you make, the bags you put them in, the ways you entertain yourself. Look at your power and gasoline bills: What changes would you make in your life if these were to triple?

As we begin to notice oil’s pervasive influence, it’s important to picture alternatives and replacements. This is unchartered territory and the closest I can get so far is a kind of Little House on the Prairie with computers, cell phones, hot water, a few ships and airplanes and a bunch of golf carts or “Smart” cars with solar batteries. I’ve heard some great ideas about how we should better use the natural energies that abound here in the Pacific Northwest such as tides, river currents, wind and rain. As you brainstorm, send your ideas in and I’ll include them so we can all benefit.

Remember that the Chinese character for “chaos” has a second, embedded meaning, “opportunity.” Peak oil can be our chance to design a better lifestyle. You could be a renowned inventor. Or would that be deventor?

Next month, I’ll discuss why oil has been such a “Sweetheart Deal” for the past two centuries.

See you then,

Caren

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REFERENCES:

¹The cornucopia literally means “horn of plenty.” Over 88% of our US-born population did not live through the Great Depression. Our entire economic system is based on growth and so-called “advancement,” which means moving away from human and natural forms of energy. The “default” mindset for us is that things will “always” get better, problems will “always” meet innovative solutions, disasters will “always” be diverted. Like adolescents, we have unrealistically high expectations based on a relatively small amount of experience. This mindset has been termed the “cornucopia myth.”

²Our total storage capacity is 727 million barrels. Two-thirds of our current reserves are “sour” oil, which is heavier, more expensive and energy intensive to refine, and higher in sulfur. (US DOE)

³Numerous publications cite U.S. consumption, import and production rates.

⁴The International Energy Agency requires a three-month reserve. (US DOE)